Updated: Sep 16, 2018
Hey all, its chilli here with a wrap of our World cup market.
The world cup was such a great event, I enjoyed some really high quality games, some high drama with the favorites getting bumped off left right and centre and I think the hype around England really added to the tournament and despite their exit, the final really delivered and France were the deserving winners with Kylian Mbappe really announcing himself to the world.
Going into the tournament, our hypothesis was that that one of Brazil and Germany would progress to the final where they would be at short odds so we could build equity in them before laying off some of the risk in the final. We also thought France might be the next best bet if one of the favorites went down.
The outcome was that Germany were horrible in the group stages and failed to make it through. They really didn’t progress their style from the last world cup and teams had worked them out on the counter.
With Germany out and France and Brazil topping their group, it really threw out our initial positions and we now had 2 teams on the same side of the draw which was not ideal. At the same time Spain were looking great having now gone undefeated in the last 22 or 23 internationals and the hype around England was growing to fever pitch.
In the quarter finals we lost Brazil who were beaten 2-1 by Belgium and France was our final hope. At this stage I decided we needed some risk management and backed Belgium in for $100 at $3.75 as cover for France and let the other side of the draw swing.
This turned out to be a good strategy as while France progressed, Croatia came from nowhere to make it to the final. With no exposure to them, I decided to hedge another $100 at $3.05.
This hedge still has us exposed going into the final game but the net position of $107 win for France and $225 loss for Croatia reflected the odds available for France going into the match of about $1.50 and we had all of the optionality of Brazil and Germany winning which would have made us significantly more.
In the end we managed to invest a total of $530 and made a profit of $107.50 or 20.3% in 1 month so a simple annual return of 243.6%.
That’s all from the World cup for another 4 years, I hope you followed my tips and managed to back a winner – see you next time…