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AFL SEASON 2018 - CLOSED

Updated: Oct 6, 2018

Hi Team, it's Chilli here with our latest positions in the AFL Premiership, Coleman Medal, Brownlow and Top 8 markets.



AFL Premiership


Original Thesis – Really is Richmond's to lose but with them paying $2.80 there is no value there, we will probably be able to get up to $1.70 on grand final day. So the trade here is to pick the other grand finalist. It’s a toss up between Sydney and West Coast, but I am tipping West Coast with Kennedy and Darling back in the team, they are paying $9 and at this point we will ride them all the way into the finals.


Coleman Medal


Original Thesis – We have been into Ben Brown for a while now while keeping Buddy safe. With plenty of buffer built into Buddy we can now load up on Brown even though he has come in to $1.30. Interesting that Bruest has shortened significantly



Brownlow Medal


Original Thesis – Mitchell is all the rage here but way too short. I have a bad feeling that someone is going to swoop in on him and I think that person might be Andrew Gaff. I have added to him at $9 just to keep him safe. The hawks do have a soft run home but missed a golden opportunity against the Lions this week, if they keep losing Mitchell will come under pressure


AFL Top 8


Original Thesis – Looking at the ladder predictor, Melbourne still seem to be the biggest team at risk of missing the finals this year. On the Betfair exchange you can lay them for 1.34 this just seems to be insane value for me.


In the end - While our thesis on Melbourne turned against us as they roared into the finals with a win over West Coast in Perth we ultimately had a great win in the Top 8 market. Richmond locked in their finals spot early and offered no value while GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn all looked shaky at various times.


Final Market - A great outcome of 165% ROI and a profit of $162. The only shame here is that we didn't get enough invested in the market.


Final Season Outcomes


AFL PREMIERSHIP


This year is done and dusted with the West Coast Eagles coming out on top and our investment fund returning 77.6%.


Our original thesis was to lock in the final top 4 to guarantee profits and we targeted Sydney, Adelaide, GWS and Richmond with a target yield of 88.6%.


As the year progressed it seemed to be Richmond's flag to lose and their odds were crunched in to $2. This was just too short for us to back so we turned our attention to the other side of the draw and the team most likely to feature in the grand final.


West Coast provided amazing value and we were able to pick them up at as much as $9 while holding Melbourne safe.


However when Richmond lost the Prelim to Collingwood we were left uncovered and it was down to game day, live in play betting to cover our position.


On the day, the Pies kicked the first 5 goals and lead for most of the game so we could not get any hedges away.


In the end it all worked out with the Eagles storming home late, pocketing close to $600 profit at 77%.


TOP 8


Original Thesis – Looking at the ladder predictor, Melbourne still seem to be the biggest team at risk of missing the finals this year. On the Betfair exchange you can lay them for 1.34 this just seems to be insane value for me.


In the end - While our thesis on Melbourne turned against us as they roared into the finals with a win over West Coast in Perth we ultimately had a great win in the Top 8 market.


Richmond locked in their finals spot early and offered no value while GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn all looked shaky at various times.


Final Market - A great outcome of 165% ROI and a profit of $162. The only shame here is that we didn't get enough invested in the market.






BROWNLOW MEDAL


Tom Mitchell ran out to an early lead which led to low volatility across the market and provided limited opportunities for open hedges.


Steele Sidebottom was the major surprise and nearly pulled off a stunning upset. He was not in our betting set and narrowed from over $26 to under $3 at one stage.


The other side effect of Sidebottom's amazing performance was that he stole votes from Brodie Grundy. We managed to lay Grundy for $60 which was our most successful position.

Martin, Gawn, Cripps and Oliver didn't get close at any stage and therefore left our open Lay positions unmatched.


In the end Mitchell ran away with the win with 3 rounds to play leaving us in a loss position of $174 or -64.8%.






If you want access to the latest betting, arbitrage, hedging and Multi strategies, become a Chilli Bet member at www.chillibet.com.au/members


Happy Punting!




AFL Season 2018 betting outcomes
AFL Season 2018 betting outcomes







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