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This week's BETS PLUS

Updated: Oct 20, 2018

Hello Punters,


Its Chilli here with a preview of this weeks upcoming games.



Bets Plus #7 - 18th October 2018

Hello punters, its Chilli here with a preview of this weeks betting.


Before I get into the bets I want to invite you to the Chilli Bet Punters Club.


It’s a lot of fun, we are crushing it with the betting and there are a lot of profitable open positions in the club, so it’s a good time to get and participate in future profits.


Hit the link and join the club www.chillibet.com.au/punters-club



EPL


OK so lets get into the bets. We start with the Premier League.


With a break for International friendlies last week, the EPL kicks off again on Saturday with a huge game Chelsea vs Manchester United.


Our strategy in the EPL has been to build a position in Liverpool and hold Chelsea safe while we wait for some more value to present in Manchester city.


If Chelsea can win this week they will cement themselves as a title threat and we have a genuine 3 horse race. You can still get them for $9 so make sure you grab a piece of that as they are sure to shorten if the win this week.


Liverpool at $3.25 and City at $1.67 have straightforward games so it would be a shock if either of them dropped points this week so there should be little price action for either of them. Chelsea is the story this week.


In the top goal scorer market Hazard is 2 goals clear and you can still get him at $6.


Down in the relegation zone, our picks are Huddersfield $1.33 and Cardiff $1.22. Huddersfield are up against Liverpool so its hard to see them improving while Cardiff are a genuine chance against Fulham. Hopefully Cardiff can grab some points from the game and present some more value.


Stay up to date with the EPL at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/premier-league-preview


Join our EPL tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_EPL


NFL


In the NFL we are backing the LA Rams $4 to go all the way from the NFC and then look to hedge with the AFC winner. At this stage we like the Chiefs $8 and are happy to roll with the Patriots $7 unhedged for now.


All three of these teams have straightforward games so unlikely to be any drastic moves this week


Stay up to date at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/nfl-season-blog


Join our NFL tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_NFL


CHAMPIONS LEAGUE


Champions League returns again late next week with our original positions weighted towards Manchester City $5.50 while keeping teams like Barcelona $6, Real Madrid $10 and Juventus $6.50 safe in case we get upset in the early stages.


This week we have a huge match between United and Juventus with Ronaldo returning to Old Trafford. With United in disarray I am going to open my position in Juventus, a win would see them finish top of the group and they may shorten just a little.


Stay up to date with the UEFA Champions League at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/champions-league-blog


Join our Champions League tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_Champs_League


A-LEAGUE


The A-League kicks off this weekend, I don’t have a strong read on the strategy just yet but Perth Glory look the best value at $9 with an opening home game against the Wanderers $9. I will be having a small amount on them and looking forward to seeing what impact Popovic can have on the team


Stay up to date at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/a-league-season-blog


Join our A-League tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_ALeague


NBA


The NBA tips off this week and looking at the market the Warriors are a ridiculous $1.55 – way too short, there is just no way I can back that before the first game is played.


However, Bet easy have offered up a special price of $2, max bet $25 so what I am willing to do is bet into this and then have $10 each on the Celtics $7.50 and Rockets $9


With Golden State being so short we may not see much more action in this market for a while.


Stay up to date at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/nba-season-blog


Join our NBA tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_NBA


NBL


As we have noted, Sportsbet have created NBL special Tuesday where they have committed to holding the NBL championship prices until the Tuesday after the round has finished.


This is great news and is really suited to my style of long term betting as it lets us jump on the teams that will shorten and avoid those that unexpectedly lost. We will be riding this special in the early rounds and see what type of market we can create.


The 36ers could be the big movers here so at $7 we will keep an eye on them


Stay up to date at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/nbl-season-blog


Join our NBL tipping Competition – it’s FREE! www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_NBL


Cricket


In the cricket, we bombed out when Usman and the Aussies created history with a miracle 4th innings, but for this, our 1-1 series prediction was looking good.


Nothing else in this market this week


Stay up to date at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/test-match-cricket-blog


Punters Club


In the Punters Club this week we placed a supercharged multi and also topped up the EPL Champions with Chelsea and Huddersfield in the Relegation market.


Join the Punters Club at: www.chillibet.com.au/punters-club


Multi


This week we have gone straightforward with 11 legs, I have backed the Kangaroos to bounce back in the Rugby and have hedge points in the Patriots and the Perth Glory.


Check out all the legs in the Members Only Facebook Group here:


www.facebook.com/groups/402653730250023


Special


As we have noted, Sportsbet have created NBL special Tuesday where they have committed to holding the NBL championship prices until the Tuesday after the round has finished.


This is great news and is really suited to my style of long term betting as it lets us jump on the teams that will shorten and avoid those that unexpectedly lost. We will be riding this special in the early rounds and see what type of market we can create.


The 36ers could be the big movers here so at $7 we will keep an eye on them


We are in between seasons at the moment and it’s a great time to get organised so make sure you download our free ebook. Its got heaps of tips from structuring markets to tracking your bets and the all important money management.


www.chillibet.com.au/how-to-win


For now that’s all from me, happy punting!



Bets PLUS #6 Recap - 15th October 2018


Hello punters, its Chilli here with a big recap of last weeks betting where we had a league record of first-week home losses and a rare quadruple-overtime marathon.


Before I get into this weeks recap I wanted to make sure you know about the Chilli Bet A League tipping competition. Check out the link below to join - it’s free and I will throw in some prizes at the end of each season.


www.footytips.com.au/comps/Chilli_Bet_-_A-League


OK so lets get into the results. This week we had bets in the EPL, the NBL and the multi.


Multi


We missed a pretty conservative multi when the first 2 legs went down with the Sydney Kings flopping and the Kangaroos upset by the Kiwis.


It’s very rare for us to bomb on the early legs but sometimes you cant avoid it. The NBL had a record run of away wins and a quadruple overtime marathon while the Kangaroos were upset in a thriller.


In the end our next 3 legs won so we had some shocking luck. No hedges so just the initial $50 lost there.


Special


NBL special Tuesday: Last week I looked at Sportsbet’s NBL special where they have committed to holding the NBL championship prices until the Tuesday after the round has finished.


This is great news and is really suited to my style of long term betting as it lets us jump on the teams that will shorten and avoid those that unexpectedly lost.


The big opportunities here were to avoid the favorites Sydney and Melbourne who both lost and back in Perth, Adelaide and New Zealand. At $6 and $12 respectively we put a reasonable stake into these teams.


Stay up to date with the NBL at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/nbl-season-blog


EPL


Last week I highlighted the opportunity for Eden Hazard to win the EPL top scorer market. He is 2 goals ahead and paying $6 - it seems great value.


The only risk here is that he leaves for real Madrid in the January transfer window. The strategy here is to continue to back him in while he is on top of the list and wait for the next contender – maybe Harry Kane or Sergio Aguero – to emerge.


Currently there are 4 players on 5 goals so when the challenger can be identified we will keep him safe with a small hedge.


Stay up to date with the EPL at: www.chillibet.com.au/invest/premier-league-preview

Punters Club


In the Punters Club we placed some bets on Hazard for top goal scorer at $6 and bombed out early in the multi.


We still have lots of open positions so looking forward to cashing in on them in the coming months.


Join the Punters Club at: www.chillibet.com.au/punters-club


So that’s it for the RECAP this week, make sure you check out Chilli bet website and follow the new blog posts on the NFL, EPL and the cricket.


www.chillibet.com.au


For now that’s all from me, happy punting!


Bets PLUS #6 - 12th October 2018


Hello punters, its Chilli here with a preview of this weeks betting.


Before I get into the bets I want to invite you to the Chilli Bet Punters Club.


It’s a lot of fun, we are crushing it with the betting and there are a lot of profitable open positions in the club, so it’s a good time to get and participate in future profits.


Hit the link and join the club www.chillibet.com.au/punters-club





OK so lets get into the bets. We start with the Premier League.


We have been building our position in Liverpool and waiting for more value to present with Man City but its Chelsea who have caught my eye.


They have a huge game against Manchester United this week and if they win will cement themselves as a title threat. You can get them for $9 at the moment so I will be trying to cover my position on them back to $0 and waiting to see how this unfolds.


Liverpool and City have straightforward games so it would be a shock if either of them dropped points this week.


In the top goal scorer market Hazard is 2 goals clear and you can still get him at $6, I will be increasing my position in him this week


With not much else around this weekend a Sportsbet NBL Special has got me interested. Sportsbet are promising not to alter the NBL Championship market until the Tuesday after the weekend games.


This gives us a great opportunity to hedge out market movers and could come in really handy with both Perth at $6 and NZ at $10.


I do like Sydney Kings in this market with their boom recruit Andrew bogut surely a class above. However if he goes down injured it is going to move the market.


In the Multi we have a nice mix of favorites from the NBL, NFL and NBA plus The Kangaroos in the league and also backing Liverpool when the EPL returns from international friendlies.


Now, the hedge points are the Patriots against the Chiefs and the Suns against the Mavericks – these games have been timed with the Patriots in the late Sunday game, the NBA not kicking off until next week and Liverpool also playing next week.

I assume if we are still alive we might take the early cash out


We are in between seasons at the moment and it’s a great time to get organised so make sure you head to www.chillibet.com.au/how-to-win and download our free ebook. Its got heaps of tips from structuring markets to tracking your bets and the all important money management.


For now that’s all from me, happy punting!



Bets PLUS #5 - 5th October 2018


Hello Punters, its Chilli here with a wrap of our upcoming weekend betting.


If you have not joined the Members Only Group, do yourself a favor and join here - this is the only place to access in-market betting strategies and hedge positions.



This week we are opening markets in the summer of Cricket, adding to our Superbowl winner market and we lay down a massive $2,825 structured Multi:


- Pak vs Aus Test Cricket will be a small market but should offer an early arbitrage position;


- JLT Cup Cricket: We firm up positions ahead of the final games;


- The LA Rams continue to roll on as we turn our attention to who will playoff against them in the Superbowl; and


- We missed a huge multi by 1 leg last week and have gone big again, check out the structured positions below:


The multi has huge equity and is highly structured if we can get through the first 3 legs. We are looking at a worst case scenario of $160 loss and potential equity of $2,625.

Happy Punting!


Recap


Hello punters, its chilli here with a big recap of last weeks betting, where I have a confession, I made a mistake and paid the price.


Before I get into this weeks outcomes I want to invite you to the Chilli Bet Punters Club.

It’s a lot of fun, we are crushing it with the betting and there are a lot of profitable open positions in the club, so it’s a good time to get and participate in future profits.


Hit the link below and join the club www.chillibet.com.au/punters-club



OK so lets get into the results. This week we had bets in domestic and test match cricket, the NFL and the multi.


- We missed a huge multi last week when the titans went down by a point and the ravens went down by 3. Small margins and with Pakistan ahead in the test we would have had a fantastic hedge into more than $2,000 of equity. In the end our hedge positions covered their outlay and we were down our original $50 on the multi.


- Pak vs Aus Test Cricket we placed a position in the series score 1-1 market at $3.25 which is still alive and will look to hedge out and see if we can lock in a profit;


- JLT Cup Cricket: Well I messed up here, missed my own position on Tasmania at $4 plus WA lost to VIC. Luckily we hedged some of our position with VIC so it wasn’t a total wipeout but not a great start to our cricket market;


- In the NFL superbowl we saw the Chiefs as the next best team after the LA Rams and they did not let us down with a good win over Jacksonville. We got on them at $9 and they have been crushed in to $7


So that’s it for the RECAP this week, make sure you check out chilli bet website and follow the new blog posts on the NFL, EPL and the cricket.


www.chillibet.com.au


For now that’s all from me, happy punting!



Bets PLUS #4 - 28th September 2018


Hello Punters, its Chilli here with a wrap of our upcoming weekend betting.


If you have not joined the Members Only Group, do yourself a favor and join here - this is the only place to access in-market betting strategies and hedge positions.


This week is all about the Grand Final games in the major Australian football codes and covering the positions we have been building throughout the year plus a massive 11 leg structured Multi:


- An 11 leg EPL & NFL multi for $50 paying $43.25; 

- Collingwood as cover for our big positive West Coast position in the AFL Grand Final; and

- Sydney Roosters to balance our positive hedge in the NRL Grand Final.


The multi has huge equity and is highly structured if we can get through the first 3 legs. We are looking at a worst case scenario of $85 loss and a potential win of $2,162.


In the AFL grand final we are exposed to a Collingwood win and will look to reduce risk in game by live betting if the odds move in our favour.


In the NRL Grand Final we have a no lose position but are weighted towards the Storm. If they get out to an early lead we may look to add to the Roosters to balance out the positions.


Happy Punting!





There is not a lot on at the moment so with the world cup finished, we look towards the AFL and NRL.


As I have said many times, the NRL is difficult for me with the Origin break and the table is so tight from 2nd to 7th. I have been looking closely at the NRL premiership market lately but nothing is grabbing me yet. This weeks games between the broncos and Panthers and warriors and Storm could help shape a plunge into the market during the finals – lets see.

So holding tight on the NRL, because we have what looks like a fairly straight forward round in the AFL with a beautifully structured final game hedge point.


I have rolled Richmond, Sydney, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Port Adelaide into this weeks multi. The difficulties here are Geelong and Port. While Geelong are playing at home, I will watch this one live to keep an eye on things and if we make it to the last leg, GWS is a massive chance and paying $2.15 and I will use this as a hedge point.


The Multi is paying $4.68 and its really important we bank something with this bets as there is not a lot of value available and it just helps us cover the losses that will inevitably come. A loss in any of the early games would be a massive upset, but they do happen.



Specials


Taking a look at the specials this week, I like one from CrownBet and another from Ladbrokes. Crownbet have a $25 double winnings offer and I will be using this on GWS if we are still alive in the last leg to lock in our profit.


I also like the Ladbrokes AFL Mega Multi - Essendon, Adelaide & Geelong all to win their Round 18 matches – paying $4.00. Essendon look good, made stronger with Zaharakis and Fantasia back while Fremantle look weaker losing Nyhuis and Hill, Adelaide have regained Talia and McGovern and should get the job done against Brisbane and Geelong are always hard to crack at their home ground, I will be watching the last game live however just to make sure things go according to plan.


Market watch


We also want to keep an eye on Browny and Buddy in the Coleman medal with Sydney playing Gold Coast, things could get ugly and we will be riding buddy at over $3 if he can get a few away early.


Likewise, we want to keep an eye on the Geelong vs Melbourne game which has ramifications for the Top 8. As I have said previously I think the current best bet on the entire market is to Lay Melbourne to make the Top 8 at around $1.35. I will be piling into this as well as backing Geelong to make the 8 at $1.20 if they get out to a big early lead. North Melbourne at $2,20 to make the 8 looks interesting too if they can beat Collingwood.

So looking at whats on offer we will be targeting a spend of around $200 this week and looking to make $200 and up to $300 if things go our way. Plus we should be able to add another $200 into our long term markets depending on what actually happens…


That’s all for today, Happy punting!!



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